Why Ohio State football will disappoint its fanbase in 2024 — Jimmy Watkins (2024)

CLEVELAND, Ohio — Ohio State football should be embarrassed. The Buckeyes always boast top-tier talent, but this year’s team is overflowing with riches. Even former OSU coach Urban Meyer, who recruited some of college football’s greatest rosters, is blushing over coach Ryan Day’s depth chart.

“This might be the best roster in college football in the last decade – as far as NFL talent, as far as depth,” Meyer said last week. The second string running back, whoever it is, is going to be probably a first-round draft pick. Think about that for a minute. I mean, they are loaded.”

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This must be The Year for Day’s Buckeyes, who are still searching for their first national championship since Meyer claimed the first College Football Playoff trophy in 2014. The postseason’s new 12-team format nearly guarantees OSU access to title contention. And the Buckeyes’ “loaded” roster, which ranks third in 247Sports′ composite rankings, gives them an inherent edge over 90% of opponents.

The defense returns eight starters from last season while adding Alabama transfer Caleb Downs, the best safety (if not defensive player) in the country. Three cornerbacks and four defensive linemen project as NFL draft picks, conservatively.

The offense, now coordinated by offensive wizard Chip Kelly, features former 1,100-yard receiver Emeka Egbuka surrounded by former five-star recruits. Freshman Jeremiah Smith, the No. 1 overall recruit from 2024, could be the best receiving prospect in school history (at a school with plenty of receiving history). And former Ole Miss running back Quinshon Judkins, who totaled 3,000 scrimmage yards in two SEC seasons, joins TreVeyon Henderson in the backfield.

Who’s gonna slow that skill group or score enough on that defense? How could the Buckeyes possibly disappoint their fans this season?

Simple: Ohio State will not win the national championship this year, which is the only applicable standard for success in 2024. A Big Ten banner would hang, but every Buckeye coach since 1947 has claimed one. Only natties stand out in OSU lore. And though Day’s 2024 roster is filled with talent and experience, I count two key spots where the Buckeyes fall short of championship quality.

Creaky offensive line returns

The last time we saw Buckeye blockers Donovan Jackson, Josh Fryar and Josh Simmons play a consequential snap, former OSU receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. looked open on a dig route. Former quarterback Kyle McCord searched for space to step toward his target. But he encountered two Michigan defenders instead, and his pass lacked the juice Harrison needed.

Interception. Game over. Playoff dreams crushed. 2023 season? Failure.

Ohio State returns three starters — technically four, but former center Carson Hinzman plays backup guard now — from that same offensive line, including the two players (Jackson and Simmons) who allowed pressures on the clinching play at Michigan Stadium.

Along with Fryar, Hinzman and the since-graduated Matthew Jones, last year’s Buckeyes ranked 64th nationally in Pro Football Focus’ pass blocking grading, and 48th nationally in run blocking.

And while PFF’s grading system is imperfect, these grades help us contextualize Ohio State’s blocking performance compared to other championship hopefuls.

During the playoff era, nine of 10 national champions have ranked top 25 in either pass block or run block grade.

The three who ranked at least 25th in both categories (2020 Alabama, 2021 Georgia, 2022 Georgia) lost one game combined (42-1) over three seasons.

And if we compared 2023 Ohio State to this list, the Buckeyes would rank 10th out of 11 teams in both categories.

PFF Blocking Grades of CFP-Era Champions

Translation: Ohio State did not field a championship-caliber offensive line last season. Loyal Buckeye fans knew that without reading a chart, but it’s worth noting the numbers, especially now that OSU is counting largely on internal improvement to change their fortunes.

Perhaps new right guard Tegra Tshbola will play better than Jones. And Alabama transfer Seth McLaughlin’s experience (24 starts) should be an advantage at center, where OSU played Hinzman as a freshman last year.

But offensive line coach Justin Frye is betting big on offseason leaps from Simmons, who committed the second-most penalties among Big Ten tackles last season, and Fryar. Jackson is a two-time All-Big Ten selection, but O-lines are defined by their weakest links. And as Ohio State learned last season, it only takes one miscue to end a promising season.

For the record: The last time we saw McLaughlin play center, he snapped low to Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe on fourth down in the Rose Bowl. Milroe searched for running room, but he ran into a pile of Michigan jerseys instead.

Sound familiar?

Will Howard’s Kansas State stats should scare you

New OSU quarterback Will Howard never threw to receivers this talented in Manhattan, Kansas. He never learned from an offensive mind like Kelly’s, and Kansas State never had a defense this densely populated by future pros to support the quarterback.

But Howard’s also never beaten a ranked opponent on the road, never played in a conference that featured four preseason top-10 teams. He’s never confronted the pressure required to play quarterback in Columbus, and he’s never posted the numbers that history demands of a national champion.

Over 19 starts from 2022-23, Howard completed 60.1% of his passes for 7.7 yards per attempt and threw 2.8 touchdowns for every interception.

Compared to the 10 quarterbacks who have hoisted a College Football Playoff trophy, Howard’s numbers would rank 11th, 11th and ninth.

Key passing stats from CFP champion quarterbacks

Of course, those numbers lack context. Armed with five-star receivers for the first time, Howard will both find easier completions and produce more explosive plays. With Kelly’s expertise and a pair of NFL-caliber running backs, OSU’s run game will take pressure off Howard’s plate. Due to Ohio State’s overwhelming talent, the Buckeyes will win most games by two-plus touchdowns.

But what happens when Ohio State needs Howard to be the difference? The moment arrives for every championship quarterback, no matter how dominant we remember their team.

Over the last 10 years, only two schools (2023 Michigan, 2017 Alabama) have won a title without allowing 30 points. None has won without at least one one-possession scare on the schedule. And no disrespect to Kansas State’s 2022 Big 12 title, but Howard has never played for the stakes facing the Buckeyes this season.

At some point, Ohio State will need Howard to channel Sugar Bowl Stetson Bennett from 2022 or Rose Bowl J.J. McCarthy from last season. At some point, Egbuka and Smith won’t look as open as usual. And at some point, the opposing talent will match Ohio State’s (or come close).

One quarter, or one drive, or one play could determine whether Howard belongs on the champions list, which features one more interesting trend: Of the last eight CFP champions, five were quarterbacked by future first-round picks (six if you count 2017 Alabama, which benched future second-round pick Jalen Hurts for future first-round pick Tua Tagovailoa at halftime of the title game).

Simple question: Do Buckeye fans believe Howard, who ranked 236th on the NFL Mock Draft database’s consensus big board Thursday night, can become a first-round quarterback?

Why OSU won’t win the national title

Champions flex strengths, find mismatches, exploit advantages. They also lack weaknesses, which is how Michigan football won a national championship with the 14th-most talented roster in college football roster last season — and how OSU can fall short with its most hyped team of the Day era.

Last year, opponents couldn’t figure where to punch the Wolverines. UM’s defense stuffed running backs, handcuffed wide receivers and deployed NFL linebackers between its front and back ends. A top-10 draft pick (McCarthy) ran the offense, throwing to a third-round wide receiver (Roman Wilson) and first-round tight end (Colston Loveland). He handed the ball to a third-round running back (Blake Corum) behind an offensive line that sent six players to the league.

This year, Ohio State added the nation’s best defender to a top defense. It reloaded (and returned) future pros into its receiving corps. It paired two of the nation’s best running backs in the same backfield.

But the last time an offensive line as bad (by PFF grades) as 2023 Ohio State’s won the title, Deshaun Watson played quarterback for Clemson. The next time Howard reminds us of Watson will be the first. And the only time OSU can exhale this season is after it wins a championship.

The slightest weakness could leave Day blushing by season’s end.

- This post has been updated to reflect that Josh Simmons did not lead the NCAA in penalties last season. He committed the second-most in 2022, when he played for San Diego State.

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